A Little Optimism... and some pythogrean musings.

The 2017 Astros were 22-11 through 33 games, the 2018 Astros are two games off that pace at 20-13. The Astros currenly have a pythagorean record of 23-10, according to Baseball Reference. This prompted me to add Pythagorean win percentage to the cummulative year to date web app. The 2017 Astros pythagorean W-L was 20-13 at this point (20.48 wins, to be more precise.)

Pythagorean Plot So, while the offense is struggling, so far the resevoir of good pitching is keeping the 2018 Astros ahead of last year. I note that Pythogrean W-L rewards lower scoring wins - winning consitently 5-2 is much better than winning consistently 9-6, even if the run differential is the same. Of course, losing a lot of games won’t help any of these things, nor the only stat that matters - the Astros record.

R=50
RA=20
(R^1.83 / (R^1.83 + RA^1.83))
## [1] 0.8424819
R=90
RA=60
(R^1.83 / (R^1.83 + RA^1.83))
## [1] 0.6774333