AL West Luck situation is not getting any better

I wrote a few weeks ago about the Mariners and Astros “luck” relative to their runs scored / runs allowed. Since then, the Astros won 11 straight and opened up a 4 game lead or so on the Mariners. But, then since then the Astros dropped 3 of 4 to Tampa and the Mariners won 7 straight (including 3 by 1 run!), and now the division race is back to a half game and the madness continues:

Remember, those red dots are every other team in the liveball era. And it’s not just the Mariners are historically over-performing their modest run-differential, the Astros “should” have won about 5-6 more games than they have. It’s a perfect storm of opposite luck that’s keeping the AL West race alive and kicking on July 1.

Even in their respective last 10 games, while going 5-5 the Astros run differential is +9, the Mariners are 8-2 and their run differential is +8.

Meanwhile, in the alternate history world where both teams just have normal luck the Astros have a ~15 game division lead.